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Date: 27 Jan 2009 14:59:06
From: stephenj
Subject: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a GS
title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.

Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?

chance of beating Federer: 25%
chance of beating Nadal: 35%
chance of beating Verdasco/Simon/Tsonga: 50%

chance of breaking the drought: 8.75% (most likely) or 12.5%

not good, but i confess that at the semis stage of the AO, i had thought
it would 0%.





--
"if federal judges have the final word over its meaning,
the Constitution would be a mere thing of wax in the hands
of the judiciary, which they may twist and shape into any form
they please".

- Thomas Jefferson




 
Date: 27 Jan 2009 20:15:10
From: jingus
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
stephenj wrote:
> It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a GS
> title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
>
> Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
>

go andy!!!


 
Date: 27 Jan 2009 17:28:53
From:
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
On Jan 27, 3:59=A0pm, stephenj <s...@cox.com > wrote:
> It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a GS
> title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
>
> Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
>
> chance of beating Federer: 25%
> chance of beating Nadal: 35%
> chance of beating Verdasco/Simon/Tsonga: 50%
>
> chance of breaking the drought: 8.75% (most likely) or 12.5%
>
> not good, but i confess that at the semis stage of the AO, i had thought
> it would 0%.
>
> --
> =A0 "if federal judges have the final word over its meaning,
> the Constitution would be a mere thing of wax in the hands
> of the judiciary, which they may twist and shape into any form
> they please".
>
> - Thomas Jefferson

no, federina is winning the ao


  
Date: 28 Jan 2009 03:39:01
From: Dave Hazelwood
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
On Tue, 27 Jan 2009 17:28:53 -0800 (PST), Arancione@selin.com wrote:

>On Jan 27, 3:59 pm, stephenj <s...@cox.com> wrote:
>> It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a GS
>> title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
>>
>> Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
>>
>> chance of beating Federer: 25%
>> chance of beating Nadal: 35%
>> chance of beating Verdasco/Simon/Tsonga: 50%
>>
>> chance of breaking the drought: 8.75% (most likely) or 12.5%
>>
>> not good, but i confess that at the semis stage of the AO, i had thought
>> it would 0%.
>>
>> --
>>   "if federal judges have the final word over its meaning,
>> the Constitution would be a mere thing of wax in the hands
>> of the judiciary, which they may twist and shape into any form
>> they please".
>>
>> - Thomas Jefferson
>
>no, federina is winning the ao


yes, it's his karma.


 
Date: 27 Jan 2009 16:01:20
From: andrew.reys@gmail.com
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
On Jan 27, 12:59 pm, stephenj <s...@cox.com > wrote:
> It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a GS
> title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
>
> Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
>
> chance of beating Federer: 25%
> chance of beating Nadal: 35%

I think he has a better chance of beating Federer than Nadal, based on
the fact that Nadal has owned him in their last few meetings and can
attack him better where it hurts the most - movement and fitness.


  
Date: 28 Jan 2009 00:02:26
From: jdeluise
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?

On 27-Jan-2009, "andrew.reys@gmail.com" <andrew.reys@gmail.com > wrote:

> On Jan 27, 12:59 pm, stephenj <s...@cox.com> wrote:
> > It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a GS
> > title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
> >
> > Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
> >
> > chance of beating Federer: 25%
> > chance of beating Nadal: 35%
>
> I think he has a better chance of beating Federer than Nadal, based on
> the fact that Nadal has owned him in their last few meetings and can
> attack him better where it hurts the most - movement and fitness.

Agreed. What does the 35 year expert think Roddick has to hurt Nadal?


 
Date: 27 Jan 2009 13:39:10
From: GOAT
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
On Jan 27, 8:59=A0pm, stephenj <s...@cox.com > wrote:
> It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a GS
> title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
>
> Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
>
> chance of beating Federer: 25%
> chance of beating Nadal: 35%
> chance of beating Verdasco/Simon/Tsonga: 50%
>
> chance of breaking the drought: 8.75% (most likely) or 12.5%
>
> not good, but i confess that at the semis stage of the AO, i had thought
> it would 0%.
>
> --
> =A0 "if federal judges have the final word over its meaning,
> the Constitution would be a mere thing of wax in the hands
> of the judiciary, which they may twist and shape into any form
> they please".
>
> - Thomas Jefferson

I believe this is the joint-longest drought ever for US men (joint
with 1963 Wimbledon (McKinley) - 1968 US (Ashe), another drought of 20
slams).

Needless to say, I doubt Roddick can break the sequence, thus leaving
US men at their historical lowest ebb. But maybe he will produce a
career-defining performance?


 
Date: 27 Jan 2009 13:34:41
From: Jason Catlin
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
On Jan 27, 3:59=A0pm, stephenj <s...@cox.com > wrote:
> It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a GS
> title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
>
> Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
>
> chance of beating Federer: 25%
> chance of beating Nadal: 35%
> chance of beating Verdasco/Simon/Tsonga: 50%
>
> chance of breaking the drought: 8.75% (most likely) or 12.5%
>
> not good, but i confess that at the semis stage of the AO, i had thought
> it would 0%.
>
> --
> =A0 "if federal judges have the final word over its meaning,
> the Constitution would be a mere thing of wax in the hands
> of the judiciary, which they may twist and shape into any form
> they please".
>
> - Thomas Jefferson

How did you arrive at those percentages?


  
Date: 28 Jan 2009 03:38:20
From: Dave Hazelwood
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
On Tue, 27 Jan 2009 13:34:41 -0800 (PST), Jason Catlin
<jason-catlin@hotmail.com > wrote:

>On Jan 27, 3:59 pm, stephenj <s...@cox.com> wrote:
>> It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a GS
>> title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
>>
>> Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
>>
>> chance of beating Federer: 25%
>> chance of beating Nadal: 35%
>> chance of beating Verdasco/Simon/Tsonga: 50%
>>
>> chance of breaking the drought: 8.75% (most likely) or 12.5%
>>
>> not good, but i confess that at the semis stage of the AO, i had thought
>> it would 0%.
>>
>> --
>>   "if federal judges have the final word over its meaning,
>> the Constitution would be a mere thing of wax in the hands
>> of the judiciary, which they may twist and shape into any form
>> they please".
>>
>> - Thomas Jefferson
>
>How did you arrive at those percentages?


aussie experts ?


  
Date: 27 Jan 2009 15:43:35
From: Rose
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
On Jan 27, 3:34=A0pm, Jason Catlin <jason-cat...@hotmail.com > wrote:
> On Jan 27, 3:59=A0pm, stephenj <s...@cox.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a G=
S
> > title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
>
> > Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
>
> > chance of beating Federer: 25%
> > chance of beating Nadal: 35%
> > chance of beating Verdasco/Simon/Tsonga: 50%
>
> > chance of breaking the drought: 8.75% (most likely) or 12.5%
>
> > not good, but i confess that at the semis stage of the AO, i had though=
t
> > it would 0%.
>
> > --
> > =A0 "if federal judges have the final word over its meaning,
> > the Constitution would be a mere thing of wax in the hands
> > of the judiciary, which they may twist and shape into any form
> > they please".
>
> > - Thomas Jefferson
>
> How did you arrive at those percentages?

i consulted an expert with 35 years of tennis-analysis experience
(me).


   
Date: 27 Jan 2009 23:57:39
From: jdeluise
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?

On 27-Jan-2009, Rose <rose.antique@gmail.com > wrote:

> i consulted an expert with 35 years of tennis-analysis experience
> (me).

Can't you just stick to one nym?


  
Date: 27 Jan 2009 13:38:04
From: Professor X
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?
On Jan 27, 9:34=A0pm, Jason Catlin <jason-cat...@hotmail.com > wrote:
> On Jan 27, 3:59=A0pm, stephenj <s...@cox.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > It's been 5 years, 5 months, and 20 slams since an American man won a G=
S
> > title - Roddick's USO win in 2003.
>
> > Will Roddick break the drought 5 days from now?
>
> > chance of beating Federer: 25%
> > chance of beating Nadal: 35%
> > chance of beating Verdasco/Simon/Tsonga: 50%
>
> > chance of breaking the drought: 8.75% (most likely) or 12.5%
>
> > not good, but i confess that at the semis stage of the AO, i had though=
t
> > it would 0%.
>
> > --
> > =A0 "if federal judges have the final word over its meaning,
> > the Constitution would be a mere thing of wax in the hands
> > of the judiciary, which they may twist and shape into any form
> > they please".
>
> > - Thomas Jefferson
>
> How did you arrive at those percentages?

I don't know i'd say more like

Chance Of beating Federer 11%
Nadal 20%
Tsonga 40%
Simon/Verdasco 50%


  
Date: 27 Jan 2009 21:37:14
From: jdeluise
Subject: Re: will Roddick break USA slam drought?

On 27-Jan-2009, Jason Catlin <jason-catlin@hotmail.com > wrote:

> How did you arrive at those percentages?

He pulled them from a dark and smelly place....